Bayerische Motoren Werke will report Q1 earnings on May 6.
Bayerische Motoren Werke BMW
- Fair Value Estimate: EUR 103.00
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High
- Economic Moat: None
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
BMW reported a 3.5% decline in group deliveries in the first quarter, as a 3% increase in European sales that was more than offset by contractions of 10% in China and 4% in the US.
We view 2026 as a transition year for BMW, marking the initial phase of the rollout of the Neue Klasse platform, with more than 40 new or updated models expected to be launched by the end of 2027. Subject to market reception, we believe this product offensive could enable BMW to outgrow the market over time as the rollout progresses.
From a profitability standpoint, margins are expected to come under pressure in the near term, reflecting the combined impact of tariffs, foreign exchange headwinds, and a material increase in depreciation and amortization linked to Neue Klasse investments. These effects are likely to be most pronounced in the early part of the year, and we therefore expect Q1 profitability to come in meaningfully below the 6.9% margin achieved in the prior-year period.
