Orsted: What We Think of the Stock After Earnings

Key Morningstar Metrics for Ørsted

• Fair Value Estimate
  : DKK 160
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : High

What We Thought of Ørsted’s Earnings

Orsted’s second-quarter underlying EBITDA increased by 2% year on year to DKK 5.4 billion. Net profit tumbled by 79%, missing the company-compiled consensus by a wide margin. The group confirmed its 2026 guidance of an EBITDA ahead of DKK 28 billion. Shares were down 3% intraday on Aug. 13.

Why it matters: EBITDA growth slowed down from the first quarter’s 2% growth in the wake of offshore wind farms whose EBITDA decreased by 3% (missing consensus by 2%) after increasing by 9% in the first quarter. The business was hit by lower trading profits and planned outages of Hornsea 1.

• Net profit was hit by a DKK 1.2 billion impairment on US wind farms due to higher interest rates, after a DKK 1.4 billion impairment for the same reason in the first quarter. This probably contributes to the negative market reaction. Still, this is purely accounting and does not reflect any execution issues, unlike in the past.
• Besides, the group confirmed all targeted completion dates for the wind farms under construction. While confirming the 2026 guidance, Orsted changed the directional guidance of the bioenergy business’ EBITDA from in line to lower, reflecting lower contribution from ancillary services and a provision.

The bottom line: We maintain our DKK 28.4 billion 2026 EBITDA estimate and our DKK 160 fair value estimate per share for no-moat Orsted. Shares are in 3-star territory, meaning there is not enough margin of safety to buy them.

Key stats: Net debt increased by DKK 0.7 billion during the second quarter to DKK 22 billion as investments slightly exceeded operating cash flows and DKK 8.8 billion proceeds from the sale of the European onshore portfolio.

• Onshore farms’ EBITDA increased by 2%, improving from the first quarter’s 2% slide.
• Construction agreements’ EBITDA, which is chiefly related to Hornsea 3, largely exceeded consensus.