Key Morningstar Metrics for Orsted
- : DKK 160Fair Value Estimate
- : ★★★Morningstar Rating
- : NoneMorningstar Economic Moat Rating
- : HighMorningstar Uncertainty Rating
What We Thought of Orsted’s Earnings
Orsted’s first-quarter underlying EBITDA increased 11% year on year to DKK 9.6 billion. However, net profit halved because of a DKK 1.4 billion impairment on US wind farms due to higher interest rates and a higher tax rate. Shares were down 4% intraday on May 6.
Why it matters: Orsted confirmed its 2026 guidance for EBITDA ahead of DKK 28 billion, in line with our DKK 28.4 billion estimate. EBITDA from offshore wind farms, the core business, increased 9% thanks to higher wind speeds and power prices.
- The onshore business’ EBITDA decreased 8%, as the year-ago quarter was boosted by a divestment gain.
- Orsted is postponing the commissioning of Borkum Riffgrund 3 from the first quarter to the third quarter because of slow turbine commissioning due to unplanned grid outages.
The bottom line: We confirm our DKK 160 fair value estimate for no-moat Orsted. Shares look fairly valued.
Key stats: Net debt increased by DKK 2.3 billion during the first quarter to DKK 21.3 billion, as investments exceeded cash flows. Still, free cash flow improved to negative DKK 0.9 billion from negative DKK 10.2 billion in the year-ago quarter, which was hit by the payment of cancellation fees.
- Bioenergy’s first-quarter EBITDA tumbled 43%, well below the flat performance expected by the company-compiled consensus. The business was hit by a lower contribution from ancillary services.
