Key Morningstar Metrics for A.P. Moller - Maersk
- : DKK 13,200Fair Value Estimate
- : ★★Morningstar Rating
- : NoneMorningstar Economic Moat Rating
- : HighMorningstar Uncertainty Rating
Freight rates have remained elevated above 2025 levels in 2026, driven not only by the conflict in the Middle East but also by port congestion and the pretrade of Trump’s new global tariffs, benefiting Maersk.
Why it matters: The change to our freight price forecast has less to do with the Middle East conflict directly, still anticipating disruption through year-end, and more to do with the congestion and tariffs, which have elevated prices and demand an update.
- Shippers’ margins are closely tied to freight rates, since many of their costs are fixed, allowing additional revenue to flow through to profits.
- Our long-term forecast is unchanged, as we still anticipate overcapacity heavily weighing on performance starting in 3-5 years, but that estimate proved too conservative. When the container shipping market is materially oversupplied, it puts downward pressure on freight rates.
The bottom line: We are raising our fair value estimate for no-moat Maersk to DKK 13,200 from DKK 12,400, reflecting improved 2026 performance. Shares are fairly valued.
- The return to the Suez Canal will gradually increase supply, reversing the effects that drove freight price increases later in our forecast.
- We increased our 2026 freight price to USD 2,300 per 40-foot equivalent unit from USD 2,000 per FFE.
