Key Morningstar Metrics for A.P. Moller - Maersk
- : DKK 13,200Fair Value Estimate
- : ★★★Morningstar Rating
- : NoneMorningstar Economic Moat Rating
- : HighMorningstar Uncertainty Rating
What We Thought of A.P. Moller - Maersk’s Earnings
Maersk reported EBITDA and EBIT of USD 1.8 billion and USD 340 million in the first quarter. Maersk maintained its outlook, still expecting container volume growth of 2%-4% and underlying EBIT of minus USD 1.5 billion to USD 1.0 billion, as they don’t expect the Middle East war to have a material impact yet.
Why it matters: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have confirmed their guidance after the start of the war in the Middle East. This goes against our initial reaction to the conflict, which anticipated higher freight prices driving stronger performance, given the historic impact of the artificial reduction in ocean volumes.
- In the future, management says its modular network limits disruption and enables it to maintain guidance.
- Maersk’s ocean segment was its weakest, posting an EBIT loss of USD 192 million in the first quarter due to lower relative bunker prices. However, freight rates are higher sequentially due to the conflict, and volumes have returned to prewar levels.
The bottom line: We make no changes to Maersk’s fair value estimate of DKK 13,200, as we analyze the May 7 results and comments by management. Shares are fairly valued.
- We find management’s outlook conservative, as we believe ocean carriers are still in a better position than they were prior to the conflict, which justifies our improved outlook. Freight rates are higher than before the war, and volumes have returned to prewar levels.
Coming up: Maersk said that oversupply concerns from new vessels are a factor in its 2026 guidance and will be a larger factor in 2027. Our concerns about overcapacity have driven our overvalued rating for most of the year, but may be hitting performance sooner than anticipated.
- We still believe the market is overindexing toward the short term. Our long-term freight price forecast is unchanged due to the conflict, as we anticipate increased supplies from vessel deliveries weighing on freight prices over the next half-decade.
