The two firms announced the Gemini network would begin making a gradual return to the Red Sea, deeming the region safe enough for passage, although no timeline was given for its full return. Shares for Maersk MAERSK B and Hapag-Lloyd HLAG were down 5.5% and 2.5% on July 6, 2026, respectively.
Why it matters: Rerouting benefits container shippers, as it translates into higher freight prices. Shippers’ margins are heavily correlated with freight rates, as many of their costs are fixed, allowing extra revenue to flow through to profits.
- Roughly 30% of global container seaborne trade passes through the Suez Canal, and the extra time required to make a detour around the Cape of Good Hope equates to a 15%-20% reduction in effective capacity on those routes, amounting to 4.5%-6% of global capacity.
- The return to the Suez Canal will gradually increase supply, reversing the effects that drove freight price increases, and likely lead to strong second-quarter performance.
The bottom line: We make no changes to our fair value estimate of DKK 12,400 for Maersk and €95 for Hapag-Lloyd, having already factored in lower freight prices in the second half of 2026.
