Key Morningstar Metrics for Hapag-Lloyd
- : EUR 92.50Fair Value Estimate
- : ★★Morningstar Rating
- : NoneMorningstar Economic Moat Rating
- : Very HighMorningstar Uncertainty Rating
After a short-lived return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal in mid-January, global shippers Maersk MAERSK B and Hapag-Lloyd HLAG are once again diverting ships around the Cape of Good Hope until further notice following the outbreak of war in the Middle East.
Why it matters: This results in us reversing the reductions to the fair value estimate we made in late January after ships returned to the Red Sea.
- Roughly 10% of global seaborne trade is through the Suez Canal, and the extra time to make a detour around the Cape of Good Hope equated to a 15%-20% reduction in effective capacity on those routes.
- The reclosing of the Suez Canal helps offset the global order book increase and will continue to artificially prop up freight prices, most significantly affecting our 2026 and 2027 forecasts.
The bottom line: We have increased Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s fair value estimates by 5% and 8%, respectively, to DKK 12,400 and EUR 100. At current levels, shares are overvalued.
- When the container shipping market is materially oversupplied, it puts downward pressure on freight rates, a significant factor in this year’s price movements. This will become worse once ships can resume sailing through the Red Sea, which we factor into the later years of our forecast.
