Maersk: What We Think of the Stock After Earnings

Key Morningstar Metrics for A.P. Moller - Maersk

• Fair Value Estimate
  : DKK 13,200
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : High

What We Thought of A.P. Moller - Maersk’s Earnings

Strong demand and higher freight prices drove strong results for Maersk in the second quarter, with group EBITDA and EBIT of USD 3.0 billion and USD 1.6 billion, respectively.

Why it matters: Global demand remains resilient, undeterred by rising prices and port congestion. Maersk was a beneficiary, with higher volumes, trade imbalances, and port congestion boosting freight rates and driving up its 2026 guidance. Full-year guidance was raised to EBITDA of USD 10.5 billion-USD 12.5 billion, from USD 8 billion-USD 10 billion, and EBIT of USD 4.5 billion-USD 6.5 billion, from USD 2 billion-USD 4 billion.

• After struggles earlier in the decade, Maersk’s logistics business has become a stable contributor over the past couple of years, expanding EBIT margins year over year for nine consecutive quarters, driven by productivity gains and cost controls.
• Maersk continues to expand its terminal assets, increasing revenue by 11% in the quarter, as it continues to expand its capacity as part of its strategic growth.

The bottom line: We make no changes to Maersk’s fair value estimate of DKK 13,200 per share, as heightened 2026 guidance is offset by higher investment. Shares are fairly valued.

• We still believe the market is over-indexing toward the short term. Our long-term freight price forecast is unchanged with Aug. 13’s update, as we anticipate increased supplies from vessel deliveries weighing on freight prices over the next half-decade..

Big picture: Maersk’s plans to significantly increase investment in trade infrastructure could have implications well beyond its own business. While investments in trucks and rail should strengthen the firm’s logistics network, expanded spending on ports may be the more consequential move for global shipping.

• One could argue the move harms Maersk, as port congestion can benefit Maersk through higher freight rates. However, we believe the move is positive, as the health of global shipping is necessary for the continued success of all industry participants.