Mondelez International is on a roll. Its stock is up more than 16% so far in 2026. Quarterly results have been good despite ongoing cost inflation and strained consumer spending. This wide-moat company has continued to invest in its brands and focus on unlocking efficiencies through its upgraded enterprise resource planning system, enhancements to its global supply chain, and cuts to non-consumer-facing media.
Despite the strong showing this year, the stock still trades 20% below our USD 77 fair value estimate. Mondelez was one of Morningstar chief US market strategist Dave Sekera’s stock picks in this week’s episode of The Morning Filter podcast: “3 Stocks to Sell and 3 Stocks to Buy in August.”
Mondelez has remained committed to driving balanced sales and profit growth. It has worked to extend product distribution, invest behind its local and global brands, empower its local leaders, and expedite innovation. The company targets long-term sales growth of 3%-5% as it seeks to sell its wares through more channels and invest in new products aligned with evolving consumer trends at home and abroad. It has prudently acquired niche brands to expand its category and geographic exposure, and we anticipate it will continue to pursue targets when the opportunity arises.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Mondelez International
- : USD 77.00Fair Value Estimate
- : ★★★★Star Rating
- : WideEconomic Moat Rating
- : LowUncertainty Rating
Economic Moat Rating
As a leading player in global snacks, Mondelez has earned a Wide Morningstar Economic Moat Rating for its entrenched retail relationships, underpinned by the vast resources it expends to support its portfolio of well-known brands, several of which generate more than USD 1 billion in sales annually. Building on the strength of its brand intangible assets, Mondelez has achieved economies of scale from its expansive global network, with around 70% of revenue derived from outside its home US market.
Read more about Mondelez International’s economic moat.
Fair Value Estimate for Mondelez International
Our fair value estimate is USD 77 per share. In our long-term forecast, we expect around 4% annual organic sales growth and more than 100 basis points of operating margin gains from the average over fiscal 2020-24, to about 18% at the end of our explicit forecast. Our valuation implies a fiscal 2027 enterprise value/adjusted EBITDA of around 16 times. We forecast that spending on research, development, and marketing will average about 7% of sales over the next 10 years, or around USD 3 billion annually.
Read more about Mondelez International’s fair value estimate.
Risk and Uncertainty
Raw material costs related to cocoa, sugar, dairy, and grains can fluctuate and may eat into Mondelez’s profits from time to time. Consumers may increasingly seek out value channels (like club and dollar stores) and lower the frequency with which they indulge in Mondelez’s more discretionary fare. We see risks from potential quality issues that could necessitate a recall. Further, governments could tax less-healthy food and/or regulate product formulations to curb obesity.
Read more about Mondelez International’s risk and uncertainty.
Mondelez Bulls Say
- Mondelez’s decision to empower in-market leaders and fuel investment in its local jewels should drive outsize growth in emerging markets.
- The firm is laser-focused on eliminating inefficiencies from its operations and is likely to consider shedding noncore products to reduce complexity.
- If cocoa costs continue to trend lower, this could offer upside to Mondelez’s profit prospects beyond fiscal 2026.
Mondelez Bears Say
- The North America business has been in the doldrums, which we attribute to value-seeking consumers and lower retail inventory levels.
- If anti-obesity drugs become more widespread globally, demand for indulgent confectionery and snacking fare may wane.
- Mondelez’s volume in Europe has fallen an average of 4% over the past two years following pronounced price hikes. Volume could remain under pressure in the region if consumers balk at proposed price increases.
3 Stocks to Sell and 3 Stocks to Buy in August
This article was compiled by Susan Dziubinski and Sylvia Hauser. Data as of the Aug. 11, 2026, close unless otherwise noted.
