Key Morningstar Metrics for Pembina Pipeline
- : C$58.00Fair Value Estimate
- : ★★Morningstar Rating
- : NoneMorningstar Economic Moat Rating
- : MediumMorningstar Uncertainty Rating
What We Thought of Pembina Pipeline’s Earnings
Pembina Pipeline PPL posted adjusted EBITDA of C$1.13 billion in the first quarter, compared with PitchBook’s consensus of C$1.09 billion. More favorable natural gas liquid spreads likely drove the difference. Better commodity pricing boosted 2026 EBITDA guidance by C$175 million to C$4.45 billion.
Why it matters: Pembina’s core business is largely unchanged. The increase in guidance reflects improved commodity pricing in the marketing business. This is a favorable tailwind but not an enduring boost.
- We were on the higher end of prior guidance at C$4.40 billion and now expect full-year EBITDA of C$4.45 billion after refreshing our commodity price deck.
The bottom line: We are increasing our fair value estimate to C$58 per share after refreshing our model and incorporating our new cost of capital methodology.
- We see the shares as fairly valued, trading in 3-star territory.
- Our no-moat, Medium Uncertainty, and Standard Capital Allocation Ratings are unchanged.
Coming up: The Greenlight Electricity Centre remains in focus, with an investment decision due by the end of the quarter.
- The successful open season for an Alliance pipeline expansion, which would likely support Greenlight, will come online in 2029, ahead of onsite generation beginning in 2030. Pembina previously guided to 160 million cubic feet per day for phase 1 and up to 320 mmcf/d in phase 2.
- Management is upbeat on the possibility of the Alliance pipeline expansion progressing even without Greenlight, although we are skeptical of the idea that the expansion can proceed without changes. It has a design capacity of up to 350 mmcf/d, making Greenlight Phase 1 the largest offtaker.
