Key Morningstar Metrics for Ørsted
- Fair Value Estimate: DKK 170
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
What We Thought of Ørsted’s Earnings
Third-quarter underlying EBITDA tumbled by 31%, worsening from 1% growth during the second quarter. Orsted posted a net loss of DKK 1.7 billion because of impairments, versus a DKK 5.2 billion profit last year.
Why it matters: Despite this soft result that came short of the company-compiled consensus, Orsted maintained its 2025 underlying EBITDA guidance of DKK 24 billion-DKK 27 billion. This reassured investors with shares in the black at the time of writing.
- The DKK 25.5 billion guidance midpoint appears within reach as it implies a 4% decline in the fourth quarter.
- Offshore wind sites’ EBITDA decreased by 8% in the third quarter as low wind speeds and a reduction in subsidies for older farms more than offset new farms’ contribution.
The bottom line: We confirm our DKK 170 fair value estimate for no-moat Orsted. Shares look materially undervalued as US risks are excessively priced in. The current share price implies a 2026 EV/EBITDA of 7.9, which looks unjustified in light of the visible growth ahead.
- Orsted emphasizes that the completion of the 8.1 gigawatts of wind farms under construction will bring DKK 11 billion-DKK 12 billion of EBITDA, implying total EBITDA of DKK 37 billion, in line with our 2031 estimate, implying a 6.4% CAGR and EV/EBITDA of 6.2.
- We cautiously maintain our DKK 24.4 billion 2025 EBITDA estimate. Any upside would not have a material impact on our long-term estimates.
Key stats: Orsted booked DKK 1.76 billion of net impairments, consisting of DKK 2.5 billion related to the 50% US tariff on the EU’s steel and aluminum, DKK 0.5 billion for the stop-work order on Revolution Wind, and a DKK 1.3 billion impairment reversal related to lower US interest rates.
- Net debt increased by DKK 16 billion in the third quarter to DKK 83 billion as negative DKK 1.2 billion operating cash flow was dwarfed by DKK 15 billion investments. Net debt will fall in the fourth quarter thanks to the DKK 60 billion rights issue proceeds received in October.
