Preston Caldwell
Preston Caldwell is senior US economist for Morningstar Research Services LLC.
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Where the US Stock Market May Be Heading Next and What to Buy Now
Morningstar’s chief market strategist and economist share their outlooks for the second half of 2026.
Q2 US Market Outlook: Why a Stock Barbell Strategy Is Ideal for Today’s Market
We expect volatility to persist in 2026 and recommend balancing undervalued growth stocks with high-quality value stocks.
As US Fed Holds Steady, Oil Spike Has 2026 Rate Cut Expectations Shrinking Fast
Both the US bond market and Fed officials now signal just one move to lower rates this year.
Could Trump Tariffs Go Still Higher Despite the Supreme Court Ruling?
The Trump administration has other ways to keep tariffs high—if the president has the patience for the bureaucracy involved.
The US Fed May Be on Pause, but It May Not Be Done Cutting Rates
With the US economy remaining strong despite jobs weakness, the Fed can take its time.
Will US Interest Rates Fall More in 2026? Our Latest Forecast
The US Fed signals a pause is on the way.
US Fed Lowers Rates, but Future Cuts Will Require More Evidence of Weakness
The ranks of the hawks are growing, even as the US Fed focuses on downside risks.
Investors First: 2026 Market Outlook
As 2026 approaches, investors face rising protectionism, geopolitical fragmentation, and market instability. Morningstar CEO Kunal Kapoor is joined by Morningstar’s global market strategists to explore the trends shaping portfolios in the year ahead.
US Fed Cuts Rates and Signals More to Come in 2025
Risks to the labor market point to easier monetary policy ahead.
Where Should Investors Look Next Among Economic Mixed Messages?
With inflation cooling and interest rates in flux, investors are reevaluating risk.
The US Fed Tees Up a September Rate Cut, but Will it Happen?
Powell sounds hawkish on inflation, but we still see two rate cuts in 2025.
Federal Reserve on Inflation Watch, but Rate Cuts Still Ahead
We see the Fed cutting interest rates twice in 2025.
Why the Economy Isn’t Out of the Woods Yet on Tariffs After US Court Decision
Tariffs would still be significantly higher and Trump could continue to roll out levies on specific goods.
When Will the US Fed Cut Interest Rates?
Powell says the Fed needs ‘greater clarity’ on how tariffs will affect growth and inflation.
US Recession Chances Jump in New Post-Tariff Forecast
We now see a 40%-50% chance of a US recession over the next year.
Tariffs Mean the US Fed’s Next Steps Are Anyone’s Guess
Large tariff hikes could take rate cuts off the table for 2025.
Why Long-Term US Interest Rates Are Still Climbing—And What That Means For Your Portfolio
Shifting market expectations have driven up longer-term yields.
Fed Hits the Pause Button, Awaits Further Data Amid Policy Uncertainty
With inflation likely to fall further, we continue to expect more rate cuts than the market.
What Trump’s Tariffs Would Mean for the US Economy
We see a low chance that he will implement uniform tax hikes but a higher chance of tariff hikes on China.
