Preston Caldwell

The eventual fading of oil-driven impacts should allow for US interest rate cuts in 2027.

Plus, the risks that could force the Fed to shift its focus from a softening job market back to sticky inflation.

Risks to the labor market point to easier monetary policy ahead.

Powell sounds hawkish on inflation, but we still see two rate cuts in 2025.

Fed to drive rates lower as top concern shifts from inflation to growth.

We see the Fed cutting interest rates twice in 2025.

Tariffs would still be significantly higher and Trump could continue to roll out levies on specific goods.

Powell says the Fed needs ‘greater clarity’ on how tariffs will affect growth and inflation.

Risks of recession have just gone up, while the standard of living could go down.

Large tariff hikes could take US rate cuts off the table for 2025.

We see a low chance that he will implement uniform tax hikes but a higher chance of tariff hikes on China.

Expectations for future cuts shrink as recession worries fade.

With better inflation ahead, we expect the Fed to keep cutting rates well into 2025

Our latest economic forecast for US interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth

But we think falling inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to make at least two interest rate cuts this year, starting in September

Despite the striking short-term rate, a deeper look at the data suggests less reason for concern around longer-term inflation.