Key Morningstar Metrics for Vestas Wind Systems
- Fair Value Estimate: DKK 175
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
What We Thought of Vestas Wind Systems’ Earnings
Vestas’ fourth-quarter results fell short of market expectations, weighed by ramp-up costs in offshore wind and lower service revenue. The outlook for 2026 calls for margin improvement, driven primarily by progress in the offshore ramp. Shares were down by 9% at the time of writing.
Why it matters: Quarterly EBIT before special items was EUR 580 million, down 24% year over year. Offshore deliveries drove 7% top-line growth in the power solutions, but higher depreciation and ramp-up costs offset solid onshore project execution, with margins compressing by 290 basis points to 10%.
- Management expects revenue between EUR 20 billion and EUR 22 billion in 2026, in line with our estimates, and an EBIT margin before special items of 6% to 8%, up from 5.7% in 2025, thanks to offshore wind ramp-up.
- We forecast a 6.1% group EBIT margin in 2026 as we still expect offshore to remain dilutive.
The bottom line: We reaffirm our fair value estimate of DKK 175 for no-moat Vestas. Shares trade roughly in line with our fair value estimate.
Between the lines: The midpoint of the 2026 Services EBIT margin outlook is 16.5%, flat year over year, implying that progress toward the long-term 25% margin target will extend beyond the recovery plan’s completion in 2026.
Key stats: Service EBIT margin declined 360 basis points to 14.% in the fourth quarter, due to lower contract revenue, weaker transactional sales, and higher costs.
- Vestas secured 1.5 GW of offshore orders after two quarters without bookings. Total intake reached 6.5 GW, flat year over year, at an average selling price of EUR 1.01 million per MW, sequentially flat. Backlog increased to a record EUR 33.2 billion, including EUR 10.1 billion in offshore.
