Key Morningstar Metrics for Novo Nordisk
- : DKK 343Fair Value Estimate
- : ★★★★Morningstar Rating
- : WideMorningstar Economic Moat Rating
- : HighMorningstar Uncertainty Rating
What We Thought of Novo Nordisk’s Earnings
Novo Nordisk NOVO B‘s first-quarter adjusted sales fell 4% at constant currencies and adjusted operating profit fell 6%. Management raised its 2026 constant currency guidance range by 1 percentage point on both measures to an 8% decline at the midpoint. Shares rose 3% in trading on May 6.
Why it matters: Novo may have found the bottom of its downward spiral, which began to dramatically reduce growth in 2025 and is now producing declines in 2026.
- Sales of the Wegovy Pill in the US were stronger than we anticipated, and we think the drug’s solid efficacy profile, wide access across telehealth platforms, and competitive pricing will drive growth in future quarters despite Lilly’s April 2026 launch of its own oral GLP-1, Foundayo.
- Novo plans to launch Wegovy Pill internationally in select markets beginning later in 2026, which is sooner than we had expected and suggests strong manufacturing capacity improvements.
The bottom line: We’re maintaining our DKK 343/USD 54 fair value estimate for wide-moat Novo Nordisk, and we continue to see shares as undervalued, trading roughly 15% below our valuation.
- We expect adjusted sales declines in 2026 to return to mid-single-digit growth in 2027 and through semaglutide’s US patent expiration in 2032.
Big picture: While US GLP-1 prices declined in 2026 due to negotiated cash-pay price reductions as part of the November 2025 agreement with the Trump administration, lower prices are unlocking demand in the cash-pay market and access in Medicare, and oral options are attracting new patients.
- We expect the global GLP-1 market to grow 22% in 2026 to more than USD 93 billion, with mid-teens growth until semaglutide’s US patent expiration in 2032 driving a USD 180 billion potential market.
- Growth beyond 2032 is the key to Novo’s long-term value, and we’re closely watching for data from CagriSema’s Redefine-11 (early 2027), zenagamtide phase 3 trials (2028), and midstage data for the triple-agonist pipeline (2027).
