Novo Nordisk: Stock Drops, But New Targets Look Similar to Our Projections

Key Morningstar Metrics for Novo Nordisk

• Fair Value Estimate
  : DKK 275
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : High

Novo hosted its 2026 Capital Markets Day on Sept. 21, where it disclosed 2030 financial targets, including mid-single-digit top-line growth and roughly steady operating margins. Shares fell 8%.

Why it matters: Investors are looking for signs that Novo is regaining its footing in the rapidly evolving obesity market, where it has lost significant share to Eli Lilly and will face numerous new competitors over the next few years.

• We think mid-single-digit top-line growth through 2030 looks achievable and in line with our current projections (6% 2026-30 CAGR), although the burning question is how hard semaglutide revenue will be hit when patents on the molecule begin to expire in the US and Europe in 2031-32.
• Novo aims to maintain gross margins through manufacturing efficiency despite price headwinds, although we remain somewhat skeptical as the obesity market moves in a more consumer-focused (and lower-priced) direction, adding to the traditional pharma pricing pressure from competition.

The bottom line: We’ve slightly lowered our fair value estimate for wide-moat Novo Nordisk NOVO B to DKK 275/USD 42 from DKK 285/USD 44 after increasing our long-term R&D expenditures, partly offset by assigning more longevity to Wegovy pill (formulation patents to the late 2030s).

• Shares remain relatively fairly valued in our view, with midstage data for triple combination assets or significant business development standing out as possible catalysts.
• Wegovy pill is the key near-term revenue driver, and guidance on serving 10 times more patients by 2030 fits with our projection for USD 2.5 billion in 2026 sales growing to USD 12 billion by 2030, assuming average global prices falling roughly 15% annually.

Long view: Our pipeline estimates are roughly in line with management’s DKK 150 billion in risk-adjusted 2035 sales, but we see zenagamtide (2029 launch) as more promising than cagrisema (2027) and cagrilintide (2028) due to its potential for an oral formulation and stronger efficacy.