Key Morningstar Metrics for BlackRock
- Fair Value Estimate: $1,170.00
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
What We Thought of BlackRock’s Earnings
BlackRock BLK ended December 2025 with a record $14.042 trillion in assets under management, up 21.6% year over year and above our estimate of $13.966 trillion. The firm continues to benefit from flows into its passive offerings as well as ongoing market gains.
Why it matters: BlackRock continues to outperform most of its traditional asset management peers from an organic AUM growth perspective, as its mix of index funds and exchange-traded funds appeals more to investors than its active products. The expansion of the firm’s private capital platform has only added to its ability to generate positive flows on a more consistent basis.
- Net long-term inflows of $268 billion in the fourth quarter represented an annualized organic AUM growth rate of 8.6%, well above our annual target of 3%-5%. We expect to see lower growth rates from most of BlackRock’s peers when they report.
- The iShares platform remains the biggest driver of flows for BlackRock. The firm picked up a record $181 billion in net long-term inflows, equivalent to a 13.9% annualized organic AUM growth rate, from its ETF business during the fourth quarter.
The bottom line: While we had expected the back half of 2025 to see increased headwinds for flows and market gains as the impacts of the US government’s fiscal, tariff, and immigration policies became more apparent, BlackRock continued to benefit from ongoing market gains.
- While there was little in wide-moat-rated BlackRock’s fourth-quarter results that would alter our long-term view of the firm, we expect to increase our $1,170 fair value estimate to $1,200 per share as we adjust the baseline for AUM in our valuation model. We view the shares as slightly undervalued right now.
- We do, however, expect to remain conservative with our near-term assumptions for BlackRock and the rest of the US-based asset managers. We believe that governmental policies put in place this past year will eventually affect the equity and fixed-income markets.
