As US companies report their fastest earnings growth in four years this season, Morningstar analysts have been steadily raising fair value estimates across the stocks they cover. Against the backdrop of the war-driven jump in oil prices and the growing momentum of the artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout, energy and technology stocks saw many of the largest valuation increases.
At the time of writing, 92% of the 827 US-listed stocks covered by Morningstar estimates have reported earnings, with major holdouts—including Broadcom AVGO, Adobe ADBE, and Oracle ORCL—scheduled to report in June. There was a 2.7% average increase in fair value estimate during the first-quarter earnings season, below last quarter’s 3.3% average.
Among the stocks screened for valuation changes, 10.7% saw increases of 10.0% or more—higher than the previous quarter’s 13.1%. Over the past 10 years, 6.9% of the group had average quarterly fair value estimate increases of 10.0% or more.
The energy and technology sectors saw the highest increases. Roughly 32.4% of energy stocks saw a fair value increase of at least 10.0% after first-quarter earnings, and the average increase was 9.4%. Among tech companies, 22.6% had fair value increases of at least 10.0%, and the average increase was 7.0%.
Here are the stocks with the largest percentage increases in their fair value estimates:
- Intel INTC: USD 90 from USD 32
- Ciena CIEN: USD 270 from USD 125
- Seagate Technology STX: USD 680 from USD 375
- GE Vernova GEV: USD 1,000 from USD 600
- Corning GLW: USD 155 from USD 95
- IREN IREN: USD 41 from USD 26
- Advanced Micro Devices AMD: USD 450 from USD 300
- Western Digital WDC: USD 415 from USD 277
- SanDisk SNDK: USD 1,000 from USD 670
- STMicroelectronics STM: USD 46 from USD 31
Here’s what Morningstar analysts had to say about each stock.
Intel
- : USD 90.00Fair Value Estimate
- Fair Value Increase: 181%
- : ★★Morningstar Rating
- : NoneEconomic Moat
Intel saw two fair value raises during the quarter. The most recent raise, to USD 90 per share from USD 60, was due to increased server CPU optimism, according to senior equity analyst Brian Colello. “Intel’s rival, AMD, projects that the server CPU market will be twice as large as its projections just six months ago, rising to USD 120 billion by 2030 with a 35% CAGR, up from USD 26 billion in 2025,” he wrote.
Earlier in the quarter, Colello hiked Intel’s fair value to USD 60 per share from USD 32 following a strong earnings report. “Intel reported a blowout quarter, not just with higher revenue but also with an impressive adjusted gross margin that beat guidance by 650 basis points to 41%,” he wrote. “Server processors, or CPUs, were in high demand thanks to the rapid rise of agentic artificial intelligence, and Intel couldn’t meet the demand, missing out on at least USD 1 billion in sales in the quarter. Our fears heading into the quarter that such strength would be offset by PC CPU weakness did not materialize.”
Read Colello’s full take on Intel here.
Ciena
- Fair Value Estimate: USD 270.00
- Fair Value Increase: 116%
- Morningstar Rating: ★
- Economic Moat: Narrow
“We are transferring coverage of Ciena, a leader in global networking equipment offering optical, routing, and switching hardware as well as platform and automation software. Demand for artificial intelligence has increased the need for Ciena’s optical products that enable data center connectivity.
“We have raised our fair value estimate to USD 270 per share from USD 125, implying a 30 times enterprise value/adjusted EBITDA multiple based on our 2026 estimates. Despite this increase, we view the shares as highly overvalued, with AI optimism outrunning what is most probable.
“We upgrade our Morningstar Economic Moat Rating to Narrow from None to reflect two key intangible assets. In optical networking, Ciena operates a duopoly with Nokia, with regulation barring Huawei from Western markets. And Ciena is innovative, being first to market in the last four capacity standards.”
—Martin Szumski, equity analyst
Szumski has more about Ciena here.
Seagate Technology
- Fair Value Estimate: USD 680.00
- Fair Value Increase: 81%
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Economic Moat: None
“Seagate delivered a stellar third quarter, shattering records for gross margin (47%) and operating margin (37.5%) while providing a fourth-quarter outlook that suggests the growth engine is only accelerating.
“We now believe the fundamentals around Seagate have structurally changed. Management’s commentary on “structural growth” is supported by a supply/demand imbalance that shows no signs of easing, and we do not believe agentic artificial intelligence and inference demand are likely to slow.”
—Eric Compton, director of equity research
The rest of Compton’s take on Seagate Technology can be found here.
GE Vernova
- Fair Value Estimate: USD 1,000.00
- Fair Value Increase: 67%
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Economic Moat: Narrow
“GE Vernova reported stellar first-quarter results, with orders of USD 18.3 billion rising 71% organically year on year across all segments and backlog growth of USD 13 billion sequentially. The firm has increased the backlog to USD 163 billion from USD 116 billion since its spinoff two years ago.
“The equipment backlog has grown by a resounding 80% since that time, at a far better margin. This matters because GE Vernova now profits not just from the “blade” in parts and services, but also the “razor” in power generation and grid equipment, which presents a structural pricing shift.”
—Joshua Aguilar, director of equity research
Take a deeper dive into Aguilar’s outlook for GE Vernova.
Corning
- Fair Value Estimate: USD 155.00
- Fair Value Increase: 63%
- Morningstar Rating: ★★
- Economic Moat: Narrow
“Corning held an investor event where it significantly raised its long-term revenue targets. It now expects USD 30 billion in annualized revenue exiting 2028, rising to USD 40 billion in annualized revenue exiting 2030. This implies a 19% compound annual growth rate between 2026 and 2030.
“Corning’s bullish targets are extremely impressive, reflecting both the immense demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure and the firm’s strong supply position as the dominant US fiber manufacturer. Targets are well above our model, and we see further upside.”
—William Kerwin, senior equity analyst
Read Kerwin’s full take on Corning here.
IREN
- Fair Value Estimate: USD 41.00
- Fair Value Increase: 58%
- Morningstar Rating: ★★
- Economic Moat: None
“IREN’s third quarter was affected by lower bitcoin prices and the capacity transition to artificial intelligence cloud. Total revenue fell 22% sequentially to USD 145 million, but AI cloud revenue roughly doubled to USD 34 million. GPU capacity ramp-up led to a quarterly operating loss of USD 239 million.
“We now get more clarity as to IREN’s data center buildout plan. The company targets 480 megawatts of capacity by calendar 2026, and 1,210 MW by calendar 2027. Total secured power capacity around the globe has reached 5 gigawatts.”
—Luke Yang, equity analyst
The rest of Yang’s take on IREN can be found here.
Advanced Micro Devices
- Fair Value Estimate: USD 450.00
- Fair Value Increase: 50%
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Economic Moat: Narrow
“AMD reported first-quarter revenue of USD 10.25 billion, up 38% year over year and above the high end of guidance. AMD expects June-quarter revenue to be USD 11.2 billion at the midpoint, up 45% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of USD 10.5 billion.
“AMD reported a blowout quarter thanks to robust server processor (CPU) demand used in agentic AI. The highlight was AMD doubling its forecast for the server CPU market versus its forecast just six months ago. The market should now rise at a 35% compound annual growth rate to USD 120 billion by 2030.”
—Brian Colello
Investors can find more of Colello’s take on AMD here.
Western Digital
- Fair Value Estimate: USD 415.00
- Fair Value Increase: 50%
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Economic Moat: None
“Western Digital delivered another blowout quarter. Third-quarter revenue grew 45% year over year, and non-GAAP gross margin exceeded 50% for the first time in company history. The company beat its own guidance, our expectations, and FactSet consensus.
“After Seagate’s great results just a couple of days ago, Western Digital’s perhaps were not too surprising. Nearline exabytes shipped were up 37% year over year while pricing was up 8%.”
—Eric Compton
The rest of Compton’s take on Western Digital can be found here.
Sandisk
- Fair Value Estimate: USD 1,000.00
- Fair Value Increase: 49%
- Morningstar Rating: ★★
- Economic Moat: None
“Sandisk reported blowout March-quarter results and June-quarter guidance. Prices rose more than 130% sequentially and more than 200% year over year. Revenue rose 250% year over year to USD 5.95 billion, and non-GAAP gross margin expanded 5570 basis points to 78.4%.
“In the tight NAND supply environment, investors can be forgiven for doing a double-take. Supply expands slowly, while demand for artificial intelligence expands rapidly, leading to immense price growth for commodity-like chips. The current upcycle continues to exceed our expectations.”
—William Kerwin
Kerwin has more about Sandisk here.
STMicroelectronics
- Fair Value Estimate: USD 46.00
- Fair Value Increase: 48%
- Morningstar Rating: ★★
- Economic Moat: Narrow
“STMicroelectronics reported first-quarter revenue of USD 3.10 billion, up 23% year over year and ahead of guidance. ST forecasts June-quarter revenue of USD 3.45 billion, up 25% year over year and well ahead of FactSet consensus estimates of USD 3.18 billion.”
“Like peer Texas Instruments reported the prior evening, chip demand is recovering well, as the industrial market recovers from a severe cyclical downturn. ST also has some company-specific tailwinds in chips going into AI data centers and Low Earth Orbit satellites.”
—Brian Colello
Take a deeper dive into Colello’s outlook for STMicroelectronics.
