Preston Caldwell

Consumer spending and business investment point to stronger underlying growth than the headline GDP figure suggests, but a shrinking household savings rate could become a problem.

Warsh points to bond yields as a verdict on the economy, but the Fed’s new communication style leaves investors with little to go on.

The AI economy is full of myths. Here are 5 worth challenging.

Both the US bond market and Fed officials now signal just one move to lower rates this year.

The Trump administration has other ways to keep tariffs high—if the president has the patience for the bureaucracy involved.

With the US economy remaining strong despite jobs weakness, the Fed can take its time.

The US Fed signals a pause is on the way.

The ranks of the hawks are growing, even as the US Fed focuses on downside risks.

As 2026 approaches, investors face rising protectionism, geopolitical fragmentation, and market instability. Morningstar CEO Kunal Kapoor is joined by Morningstar’s global market strategists to explore the trends shaping portfolios in the year ahead.

Risks to the labor market point to easier monetary policy ahead.

With inflation cooling and interest rates in flux, investors are reevaluating risk.

Powell sounds hawkish on inflation, but we still see two rate cuts in 2025.

We see the Fed cutting interest rates twice in 2025.

Tariffs would still be significantly higher and Trump could continue to roll out levies on specific goods.

Powell says the Fed needs ‘greater clarity’ on how tariffs will affect growth and inflation.

We now see a 40%-50% chance of a US recession over the next year.

Large tariff hikes could take rate cuts off the table for 2025.