Key Takeaways
- According to the Allianz fund manager, a volatile macroeconomic backdrop favors diversified portfolios over concentrated bets.
- In the short-term, he is focusing on a “muddle‑through” scenario in which growth slows but remains positive, and inflation falls but remains volatile.
- Emerging markets, European equities, real assets, and commodities are becoming increasingly important drivers of risk-adjusted returns, he says.
After years of market leadership concentrated in a narrow group of dominant stocks, investing may be entering a very different phase, says Marcus Stahlhacke, a multi-asset manager with Allianz.
This phase will be defined by wider dispersion of returns, persistent volatility, and shifting macroeconomic risks, he adds.
Stahlhacke is co-lead manager of the Allianz Dynamic Multi Asset Strategy SRI 15 Fund, which has outperformed its benchmarks and peers since 2023, and has ranked in the top quartile of its category over four of the past six years.
Allianz Global Investors Fund — Allianz Dynamic Multi Asset Strategy SRI 15
- Morningstar Medalist Rating: Bronze
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
- Fund Size: EUR 2 billion
- Ongoing Charge: 0.76%
- Morningstar Category: EUR Cautious Allocation—Global
In this interview, he outlines how he is navigating an increasingly fragile global backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions, uncertain inflation dynamics, and policy risks. Stahlhacke explains why diversification, selectivity, and tactical flexibility are now critical for capturing opportunities across asset classes while managing downside risk.
A More Fragile Macro Backdrop
Valerio Baselli: Your latest portfolio positioning suggests a selective stance across asset classes: What macro risks are you most concerned about right now, and how are they reflected in your current allocations?
Marcus Stahlhacke: The macro risks we focus on are: An energy‑driven inflation rebound, renewed supply‑chain disruptions from geopolitics, and policy‑mistake risk where central banks stay restrictive just as growth softens. This is reflected in a selective, diversified allocation across equities, fixed income, and real assets, with regional equity tilts where conviction is highest and with explicit diversifiers to reduce reliance on a single macro-outcome. We also keep implementation flexible so we can react quickly if the Iran conflict path or inflation outlook changes.
Baselli: What macro scenario are you implicitly positioning for over the next 12-18 months?
Stahlhacke: We are positioning for a “muddle‑through” macro scenario over the next one to one and a half years: Growth slows but remains positive, inflation is lower than the recent peak yet still volatile, and geopolitics keeps risk premia from fully normalizing. In that setting, we want diversified return engines: selective equities, resilient fixed income exposure, and real‑asset diversifiers that can help in inflation shocks. The aim is not to optimize for one forecast, but to hold a robust mix that can cope with regime shifts and episodic volatility.
Where Opportunities Are Emerging
Baselli: The fund appears to maintain exposure across equities, fixed income, and commodities. Where do you currently see the strongest risk-adjusted opportunities, and where are you most cautious?
Stahlhacke: We currently see the strongest risk-adjusted opportunities in selected equities and in diversifying real assets. Within equities, we favor emerging markets—with a current emphasis on Eastern Europe and Latin America. In that context, Brazil stands out as a net oil exporter, which can be supportive when energy prices are elevated. We also like Japan and Europe, with a particular focus on the UK. These positions are complemented by exposures such as small‑capitalization stocks, real estate equities and financial sector equities, which broaden the portfolio’s equity return drivers.
In fixed income, the focus remains on quality and resilience, while we are more cautious on lower‑quality credit where spreads may not sufficiently compensate for downside risks. Emerging market bonds add diversification and income potential within the fixed income allocation. In addition, silver and gold (including producers), a broad commodity exposure, and catastrophe bonds offer potential sources of additional returns that have typically been less correlated with traditional equity and bond markets.
Fixed Income: Focus on Quality and Selectivity
Baselli: Given your current duration and credit positioning, how are you thinking about interest rate risks and central bank policy over the coming quarters?
Stahlhacke: With duration and credit, our starting point is that interest‑rate volatility is likely to remain elevated. Energy prices and geopolitics can keep inflation uncertainty alive, while any growth disappointment could re‑price rate paths quickly. We therefore keep duration exposure measured and diversified across markets, and we avoid positioning that relies on a rapid shift to easier policy. In credit, we emphasize selectivity and quality, because default risk and liquidity premia can re‑emerge fast when risk sentiment turns. Overall, we balance carry with resilience.
What Drove This Fund’s Performance Since 2023
Baselli: Since 2023, the fund has outperformed its Morningstar category and peers. What specific allocation shifts or tactical decisions were most effective in driving that performance?
Stahlhacke: Outperformance since 2023 was driven by specific tactical and satellite decisions that added return and improved drawdown control. In 2023, a dedicated allocation to Japanese equities benefited from supportive domestic policy and the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s push for better capital efficiency. In 2024, an opportunistic long‑volatility strategy helped stabilize the portfolio during market turbulence through good timing. In 2025, a precious‑metal related allocation improved resilience and diversification as a hedge against macro shocks and geopolitical uncertainty. These satellites complemented the core multi‑asset exposures.
Baselli: Were there any contrarian or high-conviction positions that proved particularly impactful?
Stahlhacke: Yes. Several high‑conviction positions were meaningful because they were held consistently through volatility rather than traded around headlines. We have for example maintained a preference for emerging market and European equities even when global sentiment was dominated by a narrow set of markets and styles. We view these regions as offering a more balanced mix of solid fundamentals and appealing valuations. We also used targeted hedging strategies when risk premia looked too complacent, which helped manage downside without abandoning core exposures. These positions were impactful because they were based on valuation, fundamentals and diversification benefits rather than short‑term narratives.
Baselli: How do you decide when to make meaningful allocation changes versus holding a more stable positioning?
Stahlhacke: We make meaningful allocation changes when conviction, risk budgeting and implementation conditions line up. Conviction comes from combining our fundamental assessment with systematic inputs, while the risk budget determines how much risk we can take without violating the fund’s defensive profile. Implementation matters as well: We consider liquidity, valuation, and whether the change improves diversification or concentrates risk. When these elements align, we rebalance decisively; when they do not, we keep a steadier positioning and use smaller tilts or hedges to fine‑tune the risk profile.
ESG as a Risk Management Tool
Baselli: To what extent has your ESG best-in-class approach been a source of alpha versus a constraint on your investment universe, especially in sectors like energy or commodities, that have performed strongly recently?
Stahlhacke: Our best‑in‑class sustainability approach has been both a discipline and a potential source of value add. By systematically favoring issuers with stronger sustainability profiles versus peers, we aim to reduce long‑term downside risks linked to governance failures, litigation, or transition risk, which can support risk-adjusted returns. At the same time, it can limit parts of the investable universe in some cyclical segments that may rally strongly in the short run, including areas linked to traditional energy and resource value chains. The key is that we treat it as an integrated investment filter, not as a separate overlay, and we manage any opportunity cost through diversification and active selection.
The Role of Commodities as Diversifiers
Baselli: The fund has maintained exposure to commodities. What role has this played in performance, particularly during periods of inflation volatility?
Stahlhacke: Commodities have played three roles: diversification, inflation protection, and return enhancement. During periods of inflation volatility, they can cushion portfolios when both equities and bonds struggle at the same time. During the Iran conflict specifically, gold did not behave like a straightforward geopolitical hedge: It came under pressure and only recovered part of the initial decline.
One reason was that the US dollar acted as the primary safe haven, limiting demand for gold. In addition, rising real yield expectations increased the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets. At the same time, correlations between gold and equities can rise in stressed market regimes, which reduces its short‑term diversification benefits.
Looking Ahead: A Broader Set of Winners
Baselli: Looking ahead, do you expect to increase or reduce risk in the portfolio, and which asset classes are likely to drive returns going forward?
Stahlhacke: Looking ahead, the backdrop can be described as unstable but no longer acute, which supports a somewhat more constructive stance—clearly framed as tactical and subject to revision. Upside in risk assets is likely to be driven primarily by earnings rather than by a shift toward more accommodative central‑bank policy. At the same time, bond markets are signaling more caution than equities. In practice, we expect to keep risk exposure controlled and selective, with equities and high‑quality duration as the main return drivers, complemented by diversifiers and active risk management should volatility re‑emerge.
