Key Morningstar Metrics for Novo Nordisk
• Fair Value Estimate: DKK 552
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
Novo Nordisk Stock Update
Novo Nordisk NOVO B announced that it has ended its collaboration with telehealth provider Hims & Hers Health. In addition, the firm disclosed data at the annual meeting of the American Diabetes Association for amylin-targeting pipeline therapies cagrisema, cagrilintide, and amycretin.
Why it matters: Novo Nordisk is trying to maximize the number of patients who transition from compounded versions of semaglutide to branded Wegovy, following the May 22 regulatory deadline, but is also focused on long-term innovation beyond semaglutide (2032 US patent).
• Novo claims that Hims is still relying on mass sales of compounded semaglutide via a “personalization” loophole in US policy, which implies that compounded semaglutide is still weighing on branded Wegovy sales, despite the fact that it is now largely illegal.
• Phase 3 obesity trial data for cagrisema showed similar tolerability and muscle loss as other GLP-1 therapies, supporting potential approval by 2027. Cagrilintide has promising tolerability, but injectable amycretin tolerability issues (albeit from a phase 1 study) create some uncertainty.
The bottom line: We’re lowering our fair value estimate to DKK 552 from DKK 595 after slightly lowering our near-term Wegovy sales estimates (to account for extended compounded semaglutide competition) and amycretin sales forecast (to account for more amylin competition).
• Novo expects to launch oral semaglutide in obesity in early 2026, and its 14% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 64 weeks sets the bar for Lilly’s oral drug orforglipron. That said, orforglipron’s cheaper manufacturing and lack of dosing restrictions are likely to give it a long-term edge.
• We’re concerned that Novo’s amylin-targeting products may not be selective enough to avoid some of the gastrointestinal tolerability issues that are common with GLP-1 therapies and that could help differentiate other amylin-targeting therapies, such as Lilly’s eloralintide (in phase 2).
