LVMH MC will announce its results for the first half of 2025 on July 24 after the Euronext Paris closes. As the world’s largest luxury goods group, in terms of sales (EUR 84.7 billion in 2024), investors will be paying close attention to the indications its executives give on the health of American, Chinese and European consumers, where its sales are most significant.
The luxury goods group’s share price has strongly underperformed the Morningstar Global Luxury Goods Index, which has lost 7% since the start of the year, compared with a 22% decline for LVMH.
In the first quarter of 2025, the group’s sales fell by 3% at constant exchange rates year-on-year, including a 5% decline for the fashion and leather goods division and a 9% drop for wines and spirits.
According to Factset consensus, first-half sales are expected to come in at EUR 39.89 billion, down 3% organically year-on-year.
The luxury group is expected to report operating income before non-recurring items of EUR 9 billion, compared with EUR 10.65 billion in the first half of 2024.
Net income is expected to reach EUR 5.9 billion from EUR 7.3 billion a year earlier.
In a June 3 note, Santander analysts said: “We see risks to growth in the second quarter of 2025 linked to general macroeconomic uncertainty regarding tariffs, which weighs on consumer confidence, and to a difficult basis of comparison for Chinese/American purchases abroad due to the depreciation of the RMB/USD against the EUR.”
Morningstar Metrics for LVMH MC
Analyst: Jelena Sokolova, CFA
- Fair Value Estimate: €620.00
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
- Price/Fair Value: 0.77
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
- Economic Moat: Wide
What Will be in Focus When LVMH Announces its Results?
Here’s what Morningstar equity analyst Jelena Sokolova expects:
- First-quarter trends to continue overall into the second quarter, with no recovery or slowdown for luxury stocks.
- LVMH’s margins are expected to remain under pressure as the two most profitable divisions, fashion and leather goods and wines, are the hardest hit in terms of sales. This should have a negative effect on margin, combined with operational leverage on fixed costs.
- Investors will be paying particular attention to the commercial momentum of the fashion and leather goods division, which accounted for 48% of sales in 2024 and 78% of the group’s recurring operating income. There are uncertainties around the impact of the trade war and currency trends, particularly the fall in the US dollar.
- The health of the Chinese consumer, one of the most important for the luxury group and the industry, will be reflected in particular in cross-border sales. In recent quarters, LVMH’s sales have been more dynamic in Japan, where the flow of Chinese tourists is significant, than in mainland China. The evolution of consumer habits in and outside China will continue to be monitored by the stock market.
- In wines and spirits, trade tensions between Europe, the US and China weigh on demand for champagne and cognac. With Hennessy, LVMH is home to the world’s leading cognac brand in terms of volume, and its fate is very much linked to the global uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s trade war with the rest of the world.
