Janus Henderson: Victory Capital Increases Bid to Try to Win Over Shareholders

Key Morningstar Metrics for Janus Henderson Investors

• Fair Value Estimate
  : USD 49
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : High

In yet another twist in the saga to take Janus Henderson private, the firm announced on March 17, 2026, that Victory Capital has submitted another unsolicited bid, revising its takeout offer a little over USD 2 per share in an attempt to overtake the Trian-General Catalyst offer.

Why it matters: The revised USD 59 per share bid from Victory Capital represents an 18% premium to the USD 49 bid offered by a consortium of investors represented by Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst, and a 42% premium over Janus’ closing price on Oct. 24, 2025 (relative to Trian-General Catalyst’s 18% premium).

• From a deal valuation perspective, Trian-General Catalyst’s bid values the asset manager at USD 7.6 billion, equivalent to 11.1 times estimated forward earnings (10.3 times trailing four quarters’ earnings) and 8.3 times expected forward EBITDA (8.3 times trailing four quarters’ EBITDA).
• Meanwhile, Victory Capital’s revised bid values Janus at USD 9.1 billion, equivalent to 13.4 times forward earnings (12.4 times trailing four quarters’ earnings) and 9.9 times forward EBITDA (10.0 times trailing four quarters’ EBITDA).
• For perspective, over the past five years, Janus has traded at an average of 10.5 times trailing earnings on an adjusted basis, and, industrywide, the average takeout price for a traditional asset manager over the past decade has been around 10 times EBITDA.

The Bottom Line: While the Victory Capital offer appears superior to the Trian-General Catalyst bid, it may still not be enough to get Janus’ board to approve the deal.

• We expect to leave our USD 49 per share fair value estimate, which reflects the already-accepted Trian-General Catalyst takeout price, in place until the bid from Victory Capital appears likely to be accepted.
• If either bid fails to receive shareholder and/or regulatory approval, our fair value estimate would revert to reflecting the prospects of no-moat-rated Janus Henderson as a stand-alone firm, equivalent to USD 43 per share.