Key Morningstar Metrics for ASM International
- : EUR 740Fair Value Estimate
- : ★★★Morningstar Rating
- : WideMorningstar Economic Moat Rating
- : HighMorningstar Uncertainty Rating
What We Thought of Asm International’s Earnings
ASM International’s fourth-quarter results brought a lot of positive read-throughs, including strong 2026 guidance, a China reacceleration, and management changing its wording on market share gains.
Why it matters: Management said ASM is “well positioned to gain further share in gate-all-around at the 1.4-nanometer node,” where the first evaluation tools will be shipped in late 2026. This tone is less conservative than comments in 2025, when management expected to “at least maintain share.” This confidence seems backed by insertion into new processes like molybdenum atomic layer deposition and area-selective deposition.
- This matters because ASM will expand equipment content via new applications that are sticky once qualified. It also aligns with investor day comments, where management said the transition to 1.4 nm would expand the serviceable addressable market by USD 450 million-USD 500 million.
- Management’s outlook for China has changed from a double-digit decline to growth in 2026. The outlook mirrors that of peers ASML and Besi. Investors have been expecting a digestion period in China after three very strong years, but the country’s ambitions to strengthen its localized artificial intelligence ecosystem are pushing demand even further.
The bottom line: We raise our fair value estimate to EUR 740 from EUR 635 as we raise our medium- and long-term revenue estimates. This represents a P/E of 43 times for 2026 and 34 times for 2027. Shares look fairly valued.
- The earnings report was very bullish across the board, with customers’ capital expenditures expanding, ASM expecting to gain share, and China forecasts turning around. But after a 78% run in six months, we believe the easy money has already been made. While ASM could continue shooting up with more capex surprises at customers, expectations are now high. TSMC’s capex consensus has risen materially in recent months, with FactSet consensus now expecting USD 60 billion in 2027 versus USD 49 billion in December.
