Key Morningstar Metrics for Adyen
- Fair Value Estimate: EUR 1,800
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
What We Thought of Adyen’s Earnings
Adyen AYDEN reported first-half net revenue of EUR 1.1 billion, up 20% year on year. US tariffs affecting large Asia-Pacific clients in particular and a weakening US dollar shaved off about 2 percentage points of top-line growth in the second quarter, moving management to soften 2025 guidance.
Why it matters: Adyen had been guiding for accelerating top-line growth after investing heavily in its products and salesforce since the pandemic. New guidance assumes net revenue growth in the second half to be in line with the first half, resulting in a slight deceleration instead.
- Adyen is growing faster than the market, processing a greater share of volumes from existing clients and signing new clients as well. However, it can’t shield itself from macroeconomic threats such as tariffs, which can disproportionally weigh on discretionary e-commerce spending.
- EBITDA margin is still set to expand, although Adyen is expanding its employee base again. New client wins and good traction with recently introduced products, as well as the continued positive trend of wallet share gains, are driving strong growth rates despite the macroeconomic headwind.
The bottom line: We maintain our EUR 1,800 per share fair value estimate and wide economic moat rating. We think shares are attractive at current levels and believe the market overemphasizes Adyen’s e-commerce exposure while ignoring its above-market growth rates.
- We had trimmed our 2025 net revenue expectations with first-quarter results to account for potential tariff impacts. Second-quarter results and the revised outlook are in line with our views already, leaving our fair value estimate unchanged.
- We are encouraged by Adyen’s above-market growth rates, its signing of new clients, and its good traction with its uplift and issuing products. While tariffs are a short-term headwind, investors should focus on Adyen’s strong execution and growing customer base.
