Key Morningstar Metrics for Anheuser-Busch InBev
- : EUR 70Fair Value Estimate
- : ★★★★Morningstar Rating
- : WideMorningstar Economic Moat Rating
- : MediumMorningstar Uncertainty Rating
What We Thought of Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Earnings
AB InBev’s first-quarter 2026 results included year-over-year organic revenue and EBITDA growth of 5.8% and 5.3%, respectively, ahead of company-compiled consensus. Underlying EPS rose 8.8% in constant currency to USD 0.97. Shares rose around 7% in early trading on May 5.
Why it matters: Results came in ahead of our expectations, with top-line growth in all key regions except China, where it underperformed the market. While 2026 results have a favorable year-ago comparison, we expect continued momentum in the beyond beer category and FIFA World Cup activations to lead growth.
- Full-year 2026 guidance of EBITDA growth of 4% to 8% was maintained, which we continue to expect InBev to achieve. We expect higher marketing expenses to be offset by cost management.
- Another highlight in the quarter was volume performance, up 0.8%, ahead of our estimates. Growth was greatest in the Middle Americas segment; however, we expect other regions to accelerate, with increasing beyond beer penetration.
The bottom line: We maintain our EUR 70 fair value estimate for wide-moat InBev. At current levels, shares are fairly valued. While we are wary of the potential near-term impact of the Middle East conflict on consumer spending, we expect any headwinds to be temporary.
- Our medium-term estimates are unchanged; we project a five-year revenue growth CAGR of 4.8% and a 2030 operating margin before special items of 27.2%. Our forecasts fall in the middle of InBev’s medium-term target of 4%-8% EBITDA growth.
- We continue to hold our view that InBev can hold its market share through economic cycles. While beer volume in developed markets is expected to decline over the next 20 years, the impact on returns will be minimal thanks to InBev’s broad geographic footprint and diversification efforts.
