Preston Caldwell

Kevin Warsh is chasing a historical mirage in his goal to untether the bond market from Fed communication.

Consumer spending and business investment point to stronger underlying growth than the headline GDP figure suggests, but a shrinking household savings rate could become a problem.

Warsh points to bond yields as a verdict on the economy, but the Fed’s new communication style leaves investors with little to go on.

The AI economy is full of myths. Here are 5 worth challenging.

A sudden jump in oil prices is reshaping expectations for when the US Fed can cut rates.

Both the US bond market and Fed officials now signal just one move to lower rates this year.

The Trump administration has other ways to keep tariffs high—if the president has the patience for the bureaucracy involved.

With the US economy remaining strong despite jobs weakness, the Fed can take its time.

The US Fed signals a pause is on the way.

The ranks of the hawks are growing, even as the US Fed focuses on downside risks.

As 2026 approaches, investors face rising protectionism, geopolitical fragmentation, and market instability. Morningstar CEO Kunal Kapoor is joined by Morningstar’s global market strategists to explore the trends shaping portfolios in the year ahead.

Risks to the labor market point to easier monetary policy ahead.

With inflation cooling and interest rates in flux, investors are reevaluating risk.

Powell sounds hawkish on inflation, but we still see two rate cuts in 2025.

We see the Fed cutting interest rates twice in 2025.

Tariffs would still be significantly higher and Trump could continue to roll out levies on specific goods.

Powell says the Fed needs ‘greater clarity’ on how tariffs will affect growth and inflation.

We now see a 40%-50% chance of a US recession over the next year.

Risks of US recession have just gone up, while the standard of living could go down.

Large tariff hikes could take US rate cuts off the table for 2025.

Shifting market expectations have driven up longer-term yields.

With inflation likely to fall further, we continue to expect more rate cuts than the market.

We see a low chance that he will implement uniform tax hikes but a higher chance of tariff hikes on China.

Fed officials may be looking at ways to boost inflation.

Expectations for future US interest rate cuts shrink as recession worries fade.

With more rate cuts on the way, the US economy should avoid recession

Orsted hit by another major impairment as green fuel project scrapped and US offshore wind farm delayed, shares look undervalued 

With better inflation ahead, we expect the Fed to keep cutting rates well into 2025