A shift in mindset can help investors cope with market uncertainty.
Why it matters: 2025 was a case study in the futility of trying to predict the market. Wall Street had lofty expectations for stocks entering the year. Then the tariff shock in April rattled the markets and many firms lowered their annual stock forecasts in response. They later raised them—after stock prices rebounded. With the new year on the horizon, Morningstar’s 2026 Global Outlook report is offering investors tactics to weather whatever the future may hold.
Morningstar strategists and an analyst will discuss key challenges facing investors in 2026 in our series. Dan Kemp, the chief research and investment officer with Morningstar Investment Management Europe, is one of the major driving forces behind the report.
4 Questions on Investment Outlook for 2026
- What will investors looking for ways to cope with uncertainty find in this in-depth report?
- What makes Morningstar’s outlook different from other companies
- You’ve written about how a few ideas from the global investment report resonated with you. What are they, and why?
- What’s a lesson from 2025 that you want investors to take into 2026?
Key Quote on Investment Outlook for 2026
One of the challenges that we see in other outlooks is that they contain a lot of overconfident forecasts about what’s coming in the year ahead. And we know that forecasts are the mother of surprise, and surprise can be a really bad driver of behavior. And so what we’ve done in our outlook is, as I say, try to answer the questions by helping people think through the challenges, understand the uncertainty, and set up their portfolios for a range of possible outcomes, rather than just anchoring on one outcome in 2026.
Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer, Morningstar Investment Management Europe
Dive deeper: We’re going to dig into research analyzing the AI arms race and its worldwide buildout. A team of Morningstar researchers have investigated the spending and the risks. Morningstar Research Services’ senior equity analyst Brian Colello was part of the effort. Brian also covers Nvidia. He discusses the AI king’s outlook, competition, and stock.
9 Questions on AI Investments & Nvidia Stock
- Big Tech companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on the global construction boom. Where’s the money going, and how does this spending compare to other sectors like energy?
- This massive buildout comes with execution and cost risks. What’s at stake if hyperscalers underestimate these challenges?
- How is AI affecting sector valuations? How does it compare to the tech bubble in the late 1990s?
- Morningstar believes many investors are already heavily exposed to AI due to Big Tech’s size in broad stock indexes. How can folks counteract that?
- Let’s pivot to the AI industry leader, Nvidia. The chipmaker’s stock took a big hit when DeepSeek arrived in January. Nvidia became the world’s first $5 trillion company in October. What are your thoughts about the year Nvidia is having?
- Rival chipmaker Moore Threads recently made its market debut in China. What would it mean for Nvidia if China comes out with more advanced chips?
- Interest is growing in Alphabet’s AI chips. Can Nvidia fend off competition from one of its customers?
- What is your outlook for Nvidia and other chipmaker stocks? And which do you think is undervalued?
- What’s the takeaway for investors regarding Nvidia and the AI arms race?
Key Quote on AI Investments & Nvidia Stock
It’s been a volatile year, but it’s been a successful one, too. And I think investors sometimes might miss that. They have still generated tremendous growth in calendar 2025 through this AI buildout. And again, the buildout is massive and ongoing. So even recently, as you get concerns of an AI bubble, and we heard this on the last earnings call—Jensen Huang, the CEO, addressed this directly—that investors are concerned about a bubble, we see something different, and they are trying to catch up to demand still, and demand still exceeds supply.
Brian Colello, senior equity analyst, Morningstar Research Services
The Takeaway: The AI arms race is showing no signs of slowing down. Colello is excited about the pace of innovation and breakthroughs. Nvidia has exceeded expectations as it has grown from a nearly $50 billion data center business to a nearly $200 billion business with over $300 billion in the forecast, says the Morningstar senior equity analyst. However, he says it’s concerning that a handful of tech leaders and startups are leading the spending. If they change course for any reason, that could be a risk. As of now, he believes the industry is building toward a great 2026 and beyond.
More From Morningstar on AI Investments & Nvidia Stock
The massive AI global buildout also comes with energy and return on investment risks. Colello says Nvidia and other firms are scrambling to build power-hungry data centers. They’re looking to gas turbines, solar, and nuclear energy. Also, returns on investment look good today, but hyperscalers plan on far higher spending in the years ahead, raising concern around future profits. Colello says he’s optimistic about the AI industry but cautions investors to be prepared for speed bumps, as there are still questions about energy, supply chain expansion, and funding.
The theme from Morningstar’s 2026 Outlook is preparing for what comes next. Philip Straehl, chief investment officer for Americas at Morningstar Investment Management, writes about how market uncertainty in 2026 will test the discipline of investors and how they can navigate it. Read about how private assets are redefining how portfolios are built. Here’s a preview of upcoming articles from Morningstar researchers, including a look at the US dollar’s decline.
Securities mentioned in this episode:
Nvidia NVDA
Microsoft MSFT
Meta Platforms META
Advanced Micro Devices AMD
Tesla TSLA
Amazon.com AMZN
Oracle ORCL
Qualcomm QCOM
