Morningstar

Big Tech Stocks: Earnings Season Winners and Losers

Highly anticipated earnings releases saw most stocks down, but there have been winners.

The Nvidia logo is displayed on a sign at the Nvidia headquarters on February 26, 2025 in Santa Clara, California.
Justin Sullivan via Getty

With Nvidia NVDA reporting on Nov. 19, the Big Tech earnings season has come to an end, and the market’s verdict is decidedly mixed, especially for the artificial intelligence boom.

Some names were big winners, like Alphabet GOOGL, which has surged 8% since reporting, backed by strong AI momentum and cloud growth. At the other end is Meta Platforms META, which fell almost 22% amid concerns about its massive spending on AI projects. Then there was AI leader Nvidia, which slid 3% the day after reporting despite posting earnings that impressed Wall Street.

Here’s a look at how nine key technology stocks (some of which, like Amazon AMZN, are officially classified in other sectors) have performed since reporting earnings.

Post-Earnings Big Tech Winners

Alphabet saw its shares surge 8% after reporting earnings on Oct. 29. Morningstar equity analyst Malik Ahmed Khan says the firm’s strong AI execution, highlighted by momentum for its Gemini app and solid ad performance, “continues to drive results while refuting the AI-led disruption narrative.”

Despite the positive results, Khan believes there is still more to good news to come for Alphabet: “Continued cloud momentum, coupled with search resilience and adoption of Gemini, will all serve as positive catalysts in 2026.” At $289.45 per share, Alphabet trades at a 15% discount to its fair value estimate of $340.00. “The market reaction to earnings has been largely positive, but we believe there is more room to run and continue to view Alphabet as undervalued,” says Khan.

Post-Earnings Big Tech Losers

For the other tech stocks, earnings season did not go well. The big decline in Meta, which reported on Oct. 29, was fueled by concerns surrounding the firm’s immense capital spending on AI. “We understand investors’ fears around investment in AI,” says Khan. “After a scarring Reality Labs misallocation of capital, investors are again doubting Meta’s capital allocation strategy for AI.”

However, Khan believes the heavy expenditures are justified from a strategic perspective: “We think it is important that Meta invests in its own foundation models. Simply put, the costs of running someone else’s model at Meta’s scale are not economically feasible and would cause material margin compression.” At $589.15 per share, Meta trades at a 31% discount to its fair value estimate of $850.00. Khan believes Meta stock is undervalued: “We are not as pessimistic as the market appears to be.”

Microsoft has also taken its lumps since reporting earnings on Oct. 29, falling 12%. Morningstar’s Dan Romanoff observes that as with other software companies, investors have been concerned about AI’s impact on its business model. “As customers continue to evaluate AI and what it might mean for them, their software spending has been more subdued, especially after the surge during the covid lockdowns,” he explains. “Meanwhile, software vendors in general are not showing much in the way of AI monetization within their own portfolios, so revenue growth is not picking up.”

At the same time, Romanoff says Microsoft appears to be well-positioned with its cloud business Azure, due to rising demand for both traditional computing and AI workloads. Coupled with its partnership with OpenAI, this has “helped catapult it into a position of strength.” At $478.43 per share, Microsoft trades at a 20% discount to its fair value estimate of $600.00. “The stock remains one of our top picks,” says Romanoff.

One of the hottest tech stocks in 2025 has been data surveillance company Palantir PLTR, which rose 165% before the firm reported earnings on Nov. 3. Since then, the stock has fallen 22% despite the strong results. “Palantir’s earnings were great in terms of operating performance, but perfection is baked in right now, so there is some investor skepticism on those high expectations pressuring the price,” says Morningstar equity analyst Mark Giarelli. “Right now, Palantir is being priced like [it is] the future of all software—which is possible, but leaves little room for anything less than spectacular.”

While Giarelli believes Palantir is one of the best-positioned software stocks, in part because of its integration of AI, he sees it as significantly overvalued. At $155.75 per share, Palantir trades at a 15% premium to its fair value estimate of $135.00. For investors to earn a decent return at those levels, Palantir would need to average 45% annual revenue growth over the next five years while gradually reducing its valuation. “Current pricing leaves no room for error,” says Giarelli.

While Nvidia’s decline after reporting wasn’t the group’s largest move, it was perhaps the most surprising. “Nvidia delivered another beat-and-raise quarter, with fiscal third-quarter revenue ahead of guidance and its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue forecast ahead of FactSet Consensus estimates,” says Morningstar equity analyst Brian Colello. “These earnings were in contrast to recent market chatter about a current AI bubble, as we see no signs of near-term demand slowing down for Nvidia.”

While Colello acknowledges that energy and the return on investment for immense AI spending are valid longer-term concerns, he notes that “none of these issues appear to be plaguing demand in the near term, and there’s no guarantee that any of these issues will stunt long-term demand either.” At $180.64 per share, Nvidia trades at a 25% discount to its fair value estimate of $240.00. “We still view Nvidia as modestly undervalued and think that AI bubble concerns are overdone,” Collelo says.

Here’s a closer look at our analysts’ takes on these stocks.

Amazon

Amazon’s third-quarter results beat the high end of guidance on the top line and would’ve beat it on the bottom line, save for $4.3 billion of unusual items. Sales grew 12% year over year in constant currency to $180.2 billion, while operating margin was 9.7% versus 11.0% a year ago.

Results are good, with upside on the top and normalized bottom lines, which is a good setup heading into the holiday season. The temperature on tariffs has eased as many trade deals have been forged, although China remains a work in progress. Consumer buying patterns are unchanged.

—Dan Romanoff

Meta Platforms

Meta reported solid third-quarter earnings, with sales up 26% to $51 billion and operating margins contracting 300 basis points to 40%, as artificial-intelligence-related costs rose year over year. The firm indicates that its capital expenditures, mostly on AI, will be over $100 billion next year.

Meta’s ad business continues to perform exceptionally well, with management attributing improvements in engagement and monetization to the firm’s increased use of AI, as well as continued ad inventory (Threads, WhatsApp) growth, and strong engagement (Facebook, Instagram).

—Malik Ahmed Khan

Microsoft

Microsoft’s first-quarter results easily topped the high end of guidance. Revenue increased 17% year over year in constant currency to $77.7 billion, compared with the high end of guidance of $75.8 billion, while operating margin was 48.9%, compared with the high end of guidance at 47.2%.

Results look good from all sides, with meaningful upside to our estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue for all segments checked in above the high end of guidance. Critically, we see strength in Azure, in both traditional and AI workloads.

—Dan Romanoff

Palantir

Palantir is down slightly in after-hours trading after exceeding management’s forecast for nearly all publicized metrics. The rule of 40—the sum of revenue growth and operating margins—reached 114%, an all-time high. US commercial sales grew 121% year over year, up from 92% in the previous quarter.

We are observing a new trend where Palantir’s valuation multiple limits market enthusiasm, despite the company’s rapid growth trajectory. We believe Palantir and its ontological framework are leaders in artificial intelligence, but it faces a valuation barrier.

—Mark Giarelli

Apple

Apple’s September-quarter results were strong, with revenue rising 8% year over year to $102 billion and gross margin expanding 100 basis points year over year to 47.2%. December guidance was even better, with double-digit revenue growth expected, as well as further gross margin expansion.

Exceptional iPhone revenue guidance of double-digit year-over-year growth for the next quarter well exceeded our model, and demonstrates strong uptake of the iPhone 17 family, including the new iPhone Air. We like that Apple is seeing strong growth even against headwinds out of China.

—William Kerwin

Oracle

Oracle’s remaining performance obligations for the first quarter increased 359% to $455 billion, primarily due to expanding relationships with large language model providers. Management also expects Oracle cloud infrastructure to grow 77% in 2026 and reach a five-year annualized growth of 70%.

Oracle’s five-year OCI revenue outlook of $144 billion means the business will have a size similar to Google Cloud by fiscal 2030, which completely blew our expectations. Incremental capital expenditure is necessary for Oracle to ramp up its data center capacity for new workloads.

—Luke Yang

Nvidia

Nvidia reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, up 22% sequentially, up 62% year over year, and ahead of guidance of $54 billion. Nvidia’s forecast for the January quarter of $65 billion would be ahead of the FactSet consensus estimate of $62 billion and be up 65% year over year.

Nvidia again delivered excellent revenue growth as artificial intelligence demand still exceeds supply. Results contrast with AI bubble fears, although we view the risks as longer-term in nature. Nvidia’s supply chain is expanding even faster than in prior quarters, allowing for revenue acceleration.

—Brian Colello

Tesla

Tesla’s third-quarter earnings reflected sequential improvement driven by record auto deliveries and energy storage deployments. Yet, Tesla shares were down 4% at the time of writing on Oct. 22 in after-hours trading as the market reacted to the near-term uncertainty for deliveries.

Selling electric vehicles is currently Tesla’s largest business. The expiration of the US EV tax credit in September is likely to weigh on EV sales over the next year.

—Seth Goldstein

Alphabet

Alphabet reported solid third-quarter earnings with sales growing 16% to $102 billion and adjusted operating margins expanding 160 basis points to 34%. Google Cloud continues to fire on all cylinders, accelerating sequentially to 34% growth in the quarter, constituting 15% of total sales.

Alphabet’s execution on artificial intelligence, evidenced by strong traction for its Gemini app, which has more than 650 million monthly users, along with its ability to deliver solid advertising revenue, continues to drive results while refuting the AI-led disruption narrative.

—Malik Ahmed Khan

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