Key Morningstar Metrics for Nvidia
- Fair Value Estimate: USD 225
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High
Nvidia NVDA hosted its GTC conference in Washington, D.C. and touted a variety of its product announcements. Nvidia disclosed that, to date, it has visibility into $0.5 trillion of cumulative revenue for its Blackwell and Rubin products in calendar 2025 and 2026.
Why it matters: We’re pleasantly surprised by Nvidia’s disclosure of its backlog for Blackwell and Rubin products ramping in late 2026. We think this disclosure implies about $300 billion of data center revenue to be earned in calendar 2026 (that is, fiscal 2027), above FactSet estimates.
- This compares with $100 billion in revenue earned from Hopper products from 2023 to 2025 and our estimate of $150 billion-$180 billion in revenue earned on Blackwell products to date.
The bottom line: We raise our fair value estimate for wide-moat Nvidia to $225 from $190, as we lift our near-term estimates following this disclosure. AI demand doesn’t appear to be slowing at all, but the disclosure implies that the AI supply chain is expanding at an even faster pace than we envisioned.
- Shares rose 5% after hours to the $205 range, and we now view shares as undervalued.
- On the product front, Nvidia’s 6G collaboration with Nokia is perhaps the biggest news, but might not move the needle for Nvidia’s earnings, relative to its AI data center opportunity. Elsewhere, robotics remains an attractive long-term opportunity for Nvidia.
Coming up: Nvidia continues to tout that it foresees $3 trillion-$4 trillion of AI infrastructure spending per year by 2030, representing a 40% annual increase from levels seen in 2025.
- Nvidia won’t capture all this infrastructure opportunity, but a 40% CAGR over the next five years would be quite impressive. Nvidia’s disclosure suggests that a 40%-plus growth year is in the cards for fiscal 2027.
- Nvidia’s leading cloud customers may discuss their capital-expenditure plans with earnings later this week, but Nvidia has confirmed that spending has not only not peaked but is likely accelerating.
