Key Morningstar Metrics for Gruppo Campari
- Fair Value Estimate: €6.30
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
What We Thought of Gruppo Campari’s Earnings
Campari reported its third-quarter results, with 4.4% year-over-year organic sales growth and 1.3% operating profit growth. Management confirmed its full-year guidance of moderate organic top-line growth and flattish EBIT margin, which now includes a negative impact of EUR 15 million from tariffs.
Why it matters: We are impressed with all geographic regions reporting growth, despite economic headwinds impacting core markets, including Italy, Germany, and the US. Outside of aperitif strength, we saw encouraging momentum from the whiskey and agave portfolios, which we expect to continue.
- We expect Campari to reach its fiscal 2025 profitability target, supported by cost savings initiatives. Longer term, we expect Campari’s portfolio streamlining to lead to structurally higher margins.
- Campari has outperformed peers over the spirits downcycle thanks to aperitif demand. We still see a decent aperitif growth runway with low levels of penetration across many geographies; however, we are cautious of shifting consumer preferences and competition.
The bottom line: We maintain our EUR 6.3 per share fair value estimate for no-moat Campari. At current levels, shares are fairly valued.
- Management reaffirmed its medium-term targets, including a return to mid- to high-single-digit organic net sales growth and EBIT accretion. Our model is largely aligned with the company’s targets.
- We await more details on Campari’s medium-term roadmap from its capital markets day on Nov. 6.
