Key Morningstar Metrics for Airbus Group
- Fair Value Estimate: €189
- Morningstar Rating: ★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
What We Thought of Airbus Group’s Earnings
Airbus reported EUR 17.8 billion in third-quarter sales, up 14% from 2024, with midteens increases across its commercial jet, defense, and helicopter businesses. The company delivered 507 jets through September, leaving just about one-third to be built in the final quarter.
Why it matters: Commercial planes are 70% of its sales, so Airbus’ progress in increasing commercial jet output in the face of robust demand leads its fortunes. However, it is constrained primarily by the delayed supply of jet engines from suppliers CFM and Pratt & Whitney.
- Airbus completed the second quarter with 32 so-called “gliders” on hand, down from 60 at the end of June; gliders are jets completed and ready for customer delivery but for their lack of engines. Management indicated that its engine supply chain shows signs of recovery, which is promising considering how many jets it still plans to build in 2025.
- The company has sprinted to the year-end finish before: in 2023 management promised 720 jets and delivered 735, and in 2024 the company initially promised 800, reduced it to 770 because of engine bottlenecks, and delivered 766. In both years, fourth-quarter jet deliveries represented more than one third of the annual total.
The bottom line: With slight improvement and line of sight to its multidecade growth trajectory, we have increased our fair value estimate for this wide-moat manufacturer to EUR 189 from EUR 184 per share and to $55 from $53 per US depository receipt.
