Key Morningstar Metrics for Nutrien
- Fair Value Estimate: C$103.00
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
What We Thought of Nutrien’s Earnings
Nutrien’s NTR fourth-quarter earnings reflected higher potash and nitrogen prices, which drove higher companywide profits versus the prior-year quarter. Nutrien shares were up slightly at time of writing on Feb. 19 as the market reacted to the results and guidance for retail profit growth in 2026.
Why it matters: Nutrien does not guide to fertilizer profits, which generate around 70% of companywide profits, so the market tends to assume the company’s recent results and fertilizer spot price movements are directional indicators of near-term profits.
- We forecast nitrogen and potash prices will remain stable in 2026 versus 2025 levels. Combined with retail profit growth, we forecast Nutrien will generate slightly higher adjusted EBITDA in 2026 versus 2025.
The bottom line: We raise our Nutrien fair value estimate to C$103 per share. At current prices, we view Nutrien shares as fairly valued, trading just below our updated fair value estimate and in 3-star territory.
- Our increased valuation is due to our outlook for higher near-term nitrogen prices and lower unit production costs for Nutrien as a result of the company’s shutdown of its higher-cost Trinidad nitrogen operations. This is partially offset by lower nitrogen volumes going forward.
- Management said it is just beginning the strategic review of its phosphate business. We think Nutrien may end up divesting the business as part of management’s strategy to exit lower-return businesses. We think the review makes sense and aligns with our Exemplary Capital Allocation Rating.
