Key Morningstar Metrics for Kinross Gold
- : C$13.30Fair Value Estimate
- : ★Morningstar Rating
- : NoneMorningstar Economic Moat Rating
- : HighMorningstar Uncertainty Rating
What We Thought of Kinross Gold’s Earnings
Kinross Gold’s K second-quarter adjusted net income of USD 848 million—EPS of USD 0.71—is up 57% from a year ago but similar to the previous quarter. The stronger gold price more than offset lower volumes and higher unit costs from last year. Its USD 0.04 cents per share quarterly dividend is up 33%.
Why it matters: Guidance is maintained, and our estimates are little changed. We expect slightly higher volumes in the second half from the 980,000 gold equivalent ounces sold in the first, but lower gold prices based on the futures curve mean we expect 2026 EPS of USD 2.50, up 36% on 2025.
The bottom line: Spot gold of around USD 4,100 per ounce—double our midcycle assumption from 2030—is the main driver of no-moat Kinross shares trading significantly above our unchanged USD 9.30 per share fair value estimate.
Big picture: The elevated gold price means it is currently highly profitable, allowing it to move into a net cash position of USD 1.9 billion at the end of June 2026 from net debt of USD 2.2 billion at the end of December 2022. The firm has also raised its dividend and restarted share buybacks.
- Its strong balance sheet also gives it capacity to extend existing mines while developing new ones such as Curlew, Great Bear, and, further down the track, Lobo-Marte. These investments are needed to maintain production at around 2 million GEO given its short reserve life of about a decade.
- Its average mined grades are also higher than both its reserve and resource grades, with resources including the large, high-grade, long-life Great Bear project that we think will likely be developed. Silver byproduct credits are also likely to materially fall once Lobo-Marte replaces La Coipa.
Long view: Along with the gold price returning to being driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand, this drives our view that earnings will fall by a negative compound annual growth rate of 20% over our five-year forecast period.
