Key Morningstar Metrics for ASML
- Fair Value Estimate: EUR 1,000.00
- Morningstar Rating: ★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
What We Thought of ASML’s Earnings
ASML Holding exited 2025 with a clear reacceleration. Fourth-quarter net bookings reached an all-time high of EUR 13.2 billion, including EUR 7.4 billion in EUV orders and a year-end backlog of EUR 38.8 billion.
Why it matters: 2026 guidance followed the strong fourth-quarter step-up, and management expects sales of EUR 34 billion-EUR 39 billion, a 12% increase at the midpoint, mainly driven by EUV growth.
- Demand looks strong across the board, with multiple drivers contributing. TSMC is adding more 3nm capacity while 2nm production is also ramping up. The DRAM market still looks tight on capacity, meaning more fabs and tool orders are expected in the next two years, while memory makers also migrate more DRAM layers to EUV.
The bottom line: We maintain our fair value estimate, and we see shares as overvalued. The current 45 times forward PE multiple already embeds a lot of optimism and is in line with valuation peaks seen in 2021 and mid-2024. Investors are pricing in a lot of upside for 2026, 2027, and potentially 2028, and delivering incremental positive news becomes more challenging as expectations remain high.
- We model sales of EUR 37.6 billion in 2026, above the midpoint of guidance, as we believe ASML will do everything it can to expedite shipments and shorten lead times in an environment of high demand. We model a further 14% revenue growth in 2027, with sales above EUR 43 billion, as strong 2026 EUV orders should flow through to 2027.
Big picture: We view positively the Jan. 28 announcement to reduce 1,700 net positions across the firm with the goal of increasing the mix of engineers and reducing the mix of managers. ASML’s long-term success is built on its outstanding engineering capabilities, and any decision that fosters innovation and agility is positive.
