Key Morningstar Metrics for AGF Management
- Fair Value Estimate: C$13
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
AGF Stock Update
AGF ended June 2025 with CAD 55.0 billion in consolidated assets under management, up from CAD 53.5 billion at the end of May 2025. We expect flows and market conditions to lift AUM levels closer to CAD 60 billion over the next 18 months.
Why it matters: AGF had struggled to generate meaningful AUM growth for some time, but a boost to managed asset levels last year, as well as improved flows and market conditions are expected to lift AUM levels higher than our previous forecast in the near term.
- We expect the firm to generate a positive 0.3% organic AUM growth rate during 2025. This compares favorably with a negative 7.1% rate of growth during fiscal 2024 (ended November) and negative 3.0% annual organic AUM growth on average during fiscal 2020-24.
- Our five-year forecast has the firm generating average annual organic AUM growth of positive 0.7% during fiscal 2025-29, as flows improve sufficiently for the firm’s high-net-worth and institutional businesses to be less of a drag on AGF’s retail operations.
- This, along with low- to mid-single-digit market gains on average annually, should allow the firm to produce positive overall AUM and revenue growth in most years during fiscal 2025-29. The net result is a positive 4.8% compound annual growth rate for revenue growth during fiscal 2025-29 (up from 3.6% previously).
The Bottom Line: We’ve raised our fair value estimate for no-moat-rated AGF Management AGF.B slightly to CAD 13 per share from CAD 11 to account for revised near-term expectations for AUM, revenue, and profitability since our last update.
- Our fair value estimate implies a price/earnings multiple of 7.7 times our fiscal 2025 (ending November) earnings estimate and 7.4 times our fiscal 2026 earnings estimate.
- For some perspective, during the past five (10) years, the company’s shares have traded at an average of 6.7 (8.3) times trailing adjusted earnings, with the highest (lowest) multiple during the past decade being 14.6 (3.4) times.
